By Josh Kurtz —

Whatever happened to Martin O’Malley?

No, this is not one of those “where are they now?” trivia questions. O’Malley is still governor, grappling with massive budget deficits, traveling the state, and playing with his Irish rock band whenever he can.

But the sizzle, the snap, the sex appeal that used to be part of O’Malley’s political persona, appears to have vanished. Time was, and not too long ago, that O’Malley’s future was unlimited. To borrow a line from the great Murray Kempton, writing in the 1960’s about New York Mayor John Lindsay, O’Malley seemed fresh when everybody else seemed tired. Now, O’Malley himself, at age 46, seems tired. Someone even asked me recently whether I thought Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown was better looking than the governor.

It’s easy to see what has happened. The sour economy, and the hits the state budget has had to take as a consequence, is robbing O’Malley of whatever chance he had to pursue a progressive. The fact that the state’s decision to allow slots at select locations isn’t going to yield the financial windfall anyone expected singes O’Malley also. He has been making the requisite cuts. But some government executives take budgetary lemons and make lemonade; O’Malley hasn’t.

And the fact that he bet on the wrong horse during the 2008 presidential election — Hillary Clinton rather than Barack Obama — doesn’t help matters. Presidents of both parties frequently use Maryland as a backdrop for public pronouncements, because it’s so close to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Obama, pointedly, as the Washington Post recently noted, hasn’t even bothered to come to Maryland yet for a meal.

Looking ahead to 2010, is O’Malley in any kind of real trouble? Probably not. In the Democratic primary, let’s discount the possibility of former Prince George’s County Executive Wayne Curry or former Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan actually running. These guys enjoy reading their names in the paper. They both want back in the game, but they won’t run because they can’t win.

Former state Del. George Owings can’t win, but it looks like he’s running anyway. He has some personal grievances against O’Malley, and that can take him a long way. A lot of taxpayers, particularly in the conservative corners of the state, have grievances of their own. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of showing Owings makes in the Democratic primary. Remember, in 2002, a supermarket bag checker named Robert Fustero took 20 percent of the Democratic primary vote against Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, who by some accounts was already measuring the drapes in the White House. That, in retrospect, surely foreshadowed her flameout against Bob Ehrlich (R) in the general election.

Will Ehrlich run again next year? Don’t bet on it. He’s always had a feel for the electorate, and while Obama is making some Bill Clinton-like mistakes these days, it doesn’t feel, at least for now, as if 2010 is going to be a re-run of the Republican surge of 1994.

But the longer Ehrlich dallies, the harder it becomes for the Republicans to mount any kind of campaign against O’Malley. And even if they don’t have a prayer of beating him, that matters — the GOP needs its gubernatorial nominee to make a decent showing. Because the stronger he or she runs, the better the Republicans’ chances of winning legislative seats in swing districts. And for a party that’s so down in the dumps, you’ve got to build somewhere — every seat matters.

— September 2009 print edition